Plan B’s bitcoin model in trouble if this happens

plan b Bitcoin stock to flow model

Plan B is a very prominent figure in the world of cryptocurrencies, especially among Bitcoin holders. He is behind the very popular Bitcoin stock to flow model that shows all sorts of projections and expected Bitcoin prices in years to come.

Today, after the Bitcoin crash, he posted a tweet on his X account expecting to see at least three red dots, each signifying mania phase in the bull market. So far, we have printed none.

He adds that his bitcoin model, Stock to flow would be considered dead or at the very minimum, no longer a viable model to use, if Bitcoin does not pump to 1 million dollars or at least closes above 250,000. If that happens, Plan B says we would then be on a more conservative power law trajectory (2025 top at ~200k then crash back below 100k in 2026).

plan b Bitcoin stock to flow model

In this chart, he looks at RSI, 200WMA, Realized Price and S2F. They have nothing to do with each other, but together they give a more complete picture, better situation awareness. That being said, 270k happens to be near the low end of the 250k-1m S2F range, so at least they are consistent.